For some years the closing the gap targets masked the crises of half-lives and dirt-poor conditions that sadly trap a significant proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders. In recent years the failures have been publicly acknowledged. Let us look at the report before delving into other measures that describe a harrowing catastrophic narrative of human misery and suffering. The latest Closing The Gap report reveals that Australia is failing six of seven measures.

The closing of the life expectancy gap between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders and the rest of the Australian population was slated for 2031. There is no chance of this. However I question the estimated life expectancy claim. It has been sold to the nation that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders have a life expectancy of about 10 years less of life than the rest of the population. It is not true. It is still more than 20 years less. A ‘lie’ has been sold. It has been sold that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander males can expect to live to 69.1 years compared to 79.7 for the general Australian male population. With women it has been sold that they can expect to live 73.7 compared to 83.1 for the general Australian female population.

The differential of 10 years is an aspiration. Describing it as an estimation gives it credibility it is yet to deserve.

–       Recommended reading – Still more than 20 years less

The life expectancy gap between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders and the rest of the population remains two decades wide. Despite the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reporting that the life expectancy gap has been reduced to 10.6 years, it is in fact still more than 20 years less that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples are living. If we are to galvanise and entrench change for the present generation and for generations unborn then we have to tell the story as it is and not as how we would hope it.

In 2013, the ABS published revised estimates of life expectancy for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders. The ABS estimated that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander males born in 2010 to 2012 could expect to live to 69.1 years of age – 10.6 years less than the rest of the Australian male population. For females they could expect to live to 73.7 years, 9.5 years less. But we have learned that what we hope for does not necessarily eventuate; that adjustable indicators or targets are not always met. We have seen the majority of the Closing the Gap targets as failed every year since inception.

So what do we know? The grim fact is that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders are still dying on average more than 20 years less than the rest of the population. Let us drop the 10.6 years less presumption. If we do not say it as it is what hope do we have to galvanise improvements in the living conditions and wellbeing of those most affected? We should not sell out the present generation.

These are the facts – the median age at death in 2014 for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander males born in NSW was 57.7 years. This is as high as it got. That is more than 20 years less than NSW’s non-Aboriginal males. It was worst in Western Australia, where the median age of life was 49.9 year for males and 60 for females; respectively 28 years and 24.5 years less than non-Aboriginal males and females.

For readers to better understand the use of median age I remind that median age is different to average age. In relation to deaths, the ages of everyone who died in that year would be added and divided by the total number of deaths. However to understand the extensiveness of people who died young the median age is a profound indicator. With the median there is an equal number of people either side of the median age. So if the median age for Western Australia’s Aboriginal peoples was 49.9, then we know that 50 per cent died younger than 49.9 years. That’s a tragic indictment of the proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders dying young in Western Australia. If the gap between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal medians is 20 years plus it more than likely will be the case with the average age gap.

There is no disputing the cold hard fact of the average and median age at death. Queensland’s Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders median age at death in 2014 was 57.4 for males, 62.4 for females, and for South Australia, 56.5 for males and 60.5 for females, and in the Northern Territory 53.4 for males and 57.5 for females. Overall, in 2014, the median age of death for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander males was 55.4 and for females it was 61.5. Therefore, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders are not living on average 10.6 years less as the majority of Australians mistakenly believe but more than 20 years less.

If we keep on selling a narrative of significant positive changes when indeed this is not the case we risk making elevated risk groups invisible, we risk a presumption of positive change when in fact it is not happening. The life expectancy gap has not been reduced to 10.6 years. For years the Closing the Gap effort was being sold as closing when in fact it was not closing. Much has been sold as occurring when in fact the opposite has been the case, such as the presumption of the annual $30 billion ‘Indigenous spend’. Half of this $30 billion presumption includes the normal spend due to Australian citizens. Therefore if there is an affirmative action spending it is less than $15 billion, but even this is not true. A significant proportion outrageously includes the cost of incarceration and law and order spends. The majority of the rest of the claimed spending that could be argued as affirmative action spending, just does not happen; but what does leave Canberra – the majority does not reach the communities and instead is swallowed up by contractors and carpetbaggers.

Because of half-truths and the desperation for a good news tale, in either the misguided or diabolical notion that it may inspire hope and from that hope we extract a dividend of social change agency, instead we are thwarted. We have to get the message to the Australian people that on average, Aboriginal and Torres Islanders, the First Peoples of this continent, are still living half-lives. Despite the significant increase in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, to 730,000 – to 3 per cent of the total Australian population – an increase of 21 per cent over a five year period according to Census data, the life expectancy gap remains abominably wide. More Australians are identifying proudly to an Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander heritage – and this is skewing the data, the collectivised averages. The statistical narrative is catastrophic; one in 18 deaths a suicide, one in 9 have been to jail, one in 2 impoverished but it is even worse when we disaggregate to those who have always identified, to those who generation after generation have lived marginalised.

For a decade, I have argued that disaggregation – for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander trends and for migrant populations – is a must-do. Two years ago, the United Nations tabled a report effectively describing the failure to disaggregate and then to highlight the disaggregation as a human rights violation.

Australia enjoys one of the world’s highest life expectancies. But are Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders really only 10 years behind in the life expectancy stakes? More Australians are identifying as Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, taking rightful pride in their heritage, but these hundreds of thousands now identifying have not lived generationally marginalised. The collectivised median age masks regions of people who are living up to three decades less.

After years of disaggregating and of arguing that if we do not disaggregate and highlight we allow for masking, invisibility and discrimination, it is a relief to find that the United Nations High Commission is arguing likewise. The High Commission compiled a report tabled February 25, 2015. It argues “leave no one behind.”

There has been a recurrent call for data disaggregation, as part of the disaggregated statistics will be key to support tailored and evidence-based policy formulation.”

It is clear that the greater level of disaggregation will pose a number of challenges to official statistics, and thus, discussion on this topic is timely and resonates with the discussion on the ‘Data Revolution’.”

The report criticised the data sources for the Millennium Development Goals as “designed primarily to produce national averages and tend to mask disparities and exclude population groups that may be among the poorest of the poor or the most vulnerable and marginalised.” The report argues that from a “human rights perspective” this should not be allowed. It argues that without disaggregation there is discrimination.

Data must also enable us to reach the neediest, and find out whether they are receiving essential services. This means that data gathered will need to be disaggregated by gender, geography, income, disability, and other categories, to make sure that no group is being left behind.”

No goal or target should be considered met until it is met for all groups that are affected, particularly the lowest quintiles of the national income distribution, ensuring that we leave no one behind.”

No one should be invisible.”

With the presumption of a 10 year life expectancy gap without guarantee, calculated as an estimate on Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders born today, we neglect what needs to be done in the present for those whose lives should be improved to ensure they do not die decades less. When we collectivise data and highlight the overall median we fail people demographically – they become invisible.

The child mortality gap increased slightly from the previous year. It still remains more than double that of the rest of the population. Employments targets were not on track, with only 48.4 per cent of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders employed as opposed to 72.6 per cent for the rest of the population. Early childhood education for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children is also not on track but stands at 87 per cent of children receiving early childhood education. But South Australia, Western Australian and the Australian Capital Territory are claiming a 100 per cent rate. I do not believe this.

Despite a reported increase in the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people graduating high school – 61.5 per cent at last count – there remain nearly 40 per cent who do not. There also remain the questions of the quality of education they received.

If we want a truer picture of what a closing gap the report should focus on, then let us start with the 40 per cent of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders who live below the poverty line. If you are born Black in the Northern Territory you have a 3 in 4 chance of living poor your whole life. If you are born Black in Western Australia you have a 2 in 3 chance of living poor your whole life. We should focus on the incarceration numbers. There are more than 10,000 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders in prison today. One in 8 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders have been to prison. In Western Australian and the Northern Territory it’s one in 6. By 2025 half the national prison population will be made up of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders. Then there is the most abominable statistic – one in 18 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander deaths is a suicide. 30 per cent of Australia’s child suicides to age 17 are of Aboriginal children. Australia’s suicides of children aged 12 years and less, 80 per cent are of Aboriginal children.

The gap is wider, bigger, deeper – an abomination.